Traders on Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, are overwhelmingly predicting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 17-18, 2024.
Polymarket Investors Expect 25 Basis Point Rate Cut Ahead of Fed's September Meeting
The prediction market saw a significant trading volume of $10.9 million, with 77% of traders predicting the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In contrast, 21% of respondents expect a more significant cut of 50 basis points, while only 3% believe the Fed will maintain current rates.
This expectation stems from several economic factors, including falling inflation and a weakening labor market, both of which support a rate cut.
The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of balancing inflation control with economic growth also weighs on market sentiment. A 25 basis point cut appears to have been agreed upon, but a larger cut remains a possibility if economic conditions deteriorate further.
Analysts are predicting that Bitcoin price volatility will decrease as the Fed begins its rate-cutting cycle, while the broader crypto market prepares for the potential impact of lower interest rates on asset prices.
Polymarket saw an increase in activity last year, with total transaction volume rising from $1 billion in July to $1.52 billion by the end of August.
The platform is becoming an increasingly influential player in the prediction market space by allowing traders to bet on various outcomes using crypto tokens.
*This is not investment advice.