Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a significant sell-off, with losses potentially rising after falling below $57,000. Focusing solely on price charts, analysts suggest that the situation may get worse before it gets better.
BTC recently experienced its first negative month in eight months and its worst month since November 2022. The downtrend intensified today as Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 level for the first time since February. This decline is attributed to persistent inflation and uncertainty surrounding the Fed's interest rate policy, which continues to weigh on markets.
According to Oppenheimer analyst Ari Wald, the $60,000 mark was a key support level for Bitcoin, representing the approximate convergence of the March low and the 100-day moving average. StockCharts Chief Market Strategist David Keller noted that this level also represents a 38.2% retracement of the January-March rally phase, during which Bitcoin gained more than 66%.
While the long-term uptrend remains intact, Wednesday's support break confirms a short-term top, suggesting Bitcoin could fall further and potentially sink below $50,000. Speaking to CNBC, Wald said, “We see countertrend risk up to the $49,000 support, which marks both the February breakout, the March 2022 peak, and the 200-day average.”
Analysts foresee downside risk between $50,000 and $52,000, based on both the 61.8% retracement of the first-quarter rally and the 200-day moving average. Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, echoed this view, stating that Bitcoin's “proper breakout” below $60,000 “reopens the path to the $50,000 to $52,000 range.”
Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsburg suggested that $60,000 Bitcoin looks “vulnerable” and $50,000 could be in play. Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $60,000 and $74,000 since mid-March, when its price reached new records, and has failed to break out multiple times.
Investors expect volatility in the coming weeks as major catalysts such as the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the US and the halving pass. “With the most recent Bitcoin halving behind us, it is worth noting that Bitcoin typically sells off in the month following the halving, but the 12 months post-halving include some of the most bullish periods in history,” Keller said.
“We expect short-term weakness ahead of a strong move towards all-time highs later in 2024.”
*This is not investment advice.