As US presidential candidate Donald Trump continues his pro-Bitcoin and cryptocurrency statements, analysts generally believe that this support from Trump is one of the most important catalysts for the BTC rise.
According to Coindesk, while analysts think that the BTC price could rise to $100,000 if Trump wins the November election, FalconX said that there is no clear correlation between the Bitcoin price and Trump's chances of being elected.
Despite widespread belief that there is a strong and positive correlation between the Bitcoin (BTC) price and former US President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the November elections, there is no clear connection, according to analysis by cryptocurrency platform FalconX.
In its latest analysis, Flacon X compared the three-day changes in the BTC price with Donald Trump’s election probability between June 1 and August 15, saying that the data showed that there was no clear correlation between the two variables.
David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, explained that the weak correlation and lack of continued BTC bullishness could be due to events such as US monetary policy and the Mt. Gox refunds.
However, as the November elections approach, Lawant stated that a stronger relationship may emerge between election news and BTC price movements:
“Interestingly, there was no discernible correlation between election odds and BTC prices during the entire analysis period from June 1 to August 15, 2024.
One reason for this weaker-than-expected correlation could be the many crosscurrents affecting prices, such as the path of monetary policy in the U.S., concerns about impending supply gluts, and others, as we have highlighted previously.
Some headwinds, such as Germany’s aggressive sell-off and fears of a sell-off by Mt. Gox’s creditors, have limited the rally in BTC since June.
Still, with Harris’ growing interest in cryptocurrencies, the upcoming election could become a dominant driver of BTC prices.
At this point, a lot can change before November 5th. As we get closer to Election Day, it will be exciting to see if prediction market data and election news are the dominant forces behind Bitcoin price action.”
*This is not investment advice.
