Quinn Thompson, founder of cryptocurrency hedge fund Lekker Capital, warns that the crypto market is on the verge of a significant liquidation wave.
Thompson's harsh warning comes as the market appears to have lost its ability to bounce back, even in major cryptocurrencies, in an environment where leverage and open interest remain high, according to his own statement.
Thompson said the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs has fundamentally changed the structure of the crypto market. In previous bull markets, capital would flow from Bitcoin and Ethereum into smaller cryptocurrencies as traders became more confident. However, the current landscape has changed dramatically.
According to the analyst, investors with exposure to Bitcoin through ETFs are now finding it difficult to purchase altcoins or cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin from their brokerage accounts. “There is a lack of demand that will support altcoin supply inflation of approximately $3 billion per month over the next one to two years,” Thompson explained.
Thompson drew a parallel with the stock market, where some stocks perform well while others decline. “This will be the case here as well, and the distribution will continue to increase rather than decrease,” he added.
Thompson suggested that ETF inflows have decreased and venture funds have raised capital by selling crypto assets. According to the analyst, the supply of stablecoins, which traders often use to measure demand, has also reached a plateau. “Despite numerous attempts to break all-time highs, Bitcoin has failed to gather strength,” Thompson said.
The stagnation in demand will likely hit altcoins particularly hard, with many crypto projects unlocking their tokens, giving project teams and investors greater access to stashes of coins that were previously blocked from sale, according to the analyst.
The combination of significant token supply unlocks and selling pressure from venture capitalists will likely be too strong for most tokens, according to Thompson, as new buyers are unlikely to step in to cushion the blow.
“There's no panic yet, but I expect that to change,” Thompson said. He concluded his words by saying:
*This is not investment advice.