In a recent report, Grayscale Investments suggested that the value of Bitcoin (BTC) could see a significant increase in 2024 due to supply dynamics.
The report suggests that potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETF applications next year could coincide with a decrease in BTC's liquid supply, which could positively impact its valuation.
Grayscale noted that Bitcoin supply is relatively limited, especially considering potential investor inflows into spot ETF products in the US. According to the report, a significant portion of Bitcoin is held by institutions that may be slow to sell into an appreciating market. Grayscale, along with more than a dozen other firms, is currently seeking approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission for a spot Bitcoin product.
The report also highlighted the potential impact of Bitcoin's halving next year, which could limit the growth of new BTC supply. “This combination of inelastic Bitcoin supply and potential new investor inflows should be positive for valuations in our view,” Grayscale said.
However, the report also summarized the conditions that may oppose the thesis of a positive price increase for Bitcoin in 2024. These include a possible “hard landing” for the US economy next year, which could result in a resumption of Fed rate hikes or fewer Fed rate cuts than expected. Additionally, a long delay in regulatory approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF for the US market could also pose a risk.
According to Grayscale, these factors could significantly hinder the ongoing crypto recovery, at least in the short term.
*This is not investment advice.
