Goldman Sachs has lowered the probability of the US entering a recession next year to 20% from its previous estimate of 25%, according to a report.
Goldman Sachs Cuts US Recession Risk to 20%
The report, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, cited strong retail sales and improving unemployment data as the main reasons for the adjustment.
The bank hinted that if August labor market data is positive, the probability of a recession could drop to 15%.
Impact on Bitcoin
Potential rate cuts could have mixed effects on Bitcoin, according to this data. Goldman’s minor adjustment is unlikely to prompt significant risk-seeking behavior across asset classes, including crypto, IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters.
Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, stressed that the interest rate cut could initially support Bitcoin, but it could also signal an impending recession, which has not historically been positive for the cryptocurrency.
Thielen noted that Bitcoin saw a brief 20% rally in 2019 after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates.
Not all economists share Goldman’s optimism, however. JPMorgan maintains a 45% chance of a recession by 2025, citing uncertainties over labor demand and potential political risks.
While Goldman is more optimistic, global economic data still presents a mixed picture, particularly as manufacturing slows in some regions.
*This is not investment advice.