As the end of 2025 approaches, Bitcoin (BTC) has still not gained full upward momentum and continues to trade below $100,000.
While analysts generally point to 2026 for an uptrend, Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital said that 2026 could be one of the most difficult years to predict for Bitcoin.
In a post on his X account, Alex Thorn argued that the coming year will be unpredictably chaotic due to a mix of macroeconomic uncertainty, political risk, and volatile cryptocurrency market momentum.
Thorn stated that Bitcoin’s current situation represents a deep downtrend, adding that BTC is struggling to gain sustainable upward momentum.
At this point, the analyst stated that the downside risk would persist unless Bitcoin was definitively and clearly trading above the $100,000 to $105,000 range.
He also noted that the options market points to uncertainty for Bitcoin. According to options data, the probability of very different outcomes for the Bitcoin price next year is seen as approximately equal.
The analyst stated, “Investors are attributing almost equal probabilities to Bitcoin reaching prices around $70,000 or $130,000 in mid-2026 and around $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year.”
However, analyst Galaxy Research also emphasized that the upward trend is expected to continue in the medium to long term due to increasing structural maturity and institutional adoption.
At this point, the analyst added that they predict Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
*This is not investment advice.