Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer recently shared his views on the potential impacts of the Bitcoin Spot ETF approval.
Timmer stated that despite SEC approval rumors regarding Bitcoin, the recent price increase does not appear to be due to speculative trading. According to the manager, this is evident from the low percentage of BTC held for less than three months.
Jurrien Timmer: “Price Action Could Be Double-Sided If Bitcoin Spot ETF Is Approved”
According to Timmer, the percentage of Bitcoin held for at least five or even ten years continues to rise, indicating that these long-term holders are not waiting to sell on ETF approval news.
Timmer also highlighted some notable movements in the Bitcoin futures contract market. Timmer also shared a chart showing the number of Bitcoin contracts held in the “asset manager” category in the Commitment of Traders report (CoT) as defined by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to the manager, the chart shows a growing interest in BTC contracts, and Timmer thinks some of these positions are waiting for the SEC to take action. In this case, these position holders can sell futures to buy spot when the big announcement finally comes.
However, Timmer explained that this does not necessarily mean that it will be a “sell the news” event, but that it does suggest that the price action may be more bilateral.
Timmer also noted that any new news from the SEC would come at a time when macro data has made a U-turn from the liquidity-filled days of 2020-21.
*This is not investment advice.