Cryptocurrency analyst James Van Straten, in his latest assessment of the Bitcoin market, stated that mining data suggests the market may be approaching its bottom during the recent downturn.
According to Van Straten, the hashband indicator in particular is generating signals similar to those seen in November 2022, which strengthens the possibility that the current pullback may have ended.
Analysts say the worst of the nearly 50% correction in Bitcoin may be over, with hash rate indicators suggesting the end of a three-month period of miner capitulation. Historically, Bitcoin tends to bottom out during periods when miners are under the most intense financial pressure.
Miner capitulation begins when mining revenue falls below operating costs. During this process, inefficient miners are forced to shut down their equipment and sell their Bitcoin reserves to cover electricity, debt, and operational expenses. This leads to both a decrease in hash rate and persistent selling pressure on the market. However, the 30-day moving average of the hash rate rising above the 60-day average again indicates that miners are re-engaging and the pressure on the network is easing. Current data suggests that this intersection is approaching.
Historical data shows that there have been approximately 20 miner capitulations since 2011, most of which coincided with local or macroeconomic dips. January 2015, December 2018, and December 2022 stand out among these periods. Notably, Bitcoin bottomed out around $15,500 in November 2022.
On the other hand, according to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently trading below $66,000, which is its estimated average production cost. This level is historically considered a “deep value zone.” The recovery in hash rate and the increase in miner confidence signal that selling pressure may be decreasing and the market is seeking a new equilibrium.
*This is not investment advice.