While Bitcoin counts the days for the highly anticipated halving, the price continues to be crushed under the pullback. At this point, while it was down 18% after the rally in March, popular cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital argued that this correction was healthy.
At this point, comparing previous halving cycles, the analyst said that Bitcoin is in the first stage of the halving cycle and is progressing in line with the predictions.
Stating that the Bitcoin halving consists of three stages, Rekt Capital stated that these stages are “the last withdrawal before the halving, reaccumulation and parabolic rise”.
“The first phase usually occurs 28 to 14 days before the halving.
In 2016, the pre-halving pullback was around 38% and lasted 3-4 days. In 2020, before the halving, this pullback was around 20% and lasted 56 days.
We are currently just under 14 days away from the BTC Halving, and over the last few weeks Bitcoin has pulled back a total of 18%.
As a result, Bitcoin appears to be repeating both the 2016 and 2020 Pre-Hallowing pullback price trends.
The second phase is the reaccumulation phase. This phase comes after the Pre-Hallowing Withdrawal bottoms out and can last several weeks or up to 150 days (i.e. 5 months). It may take up to five months.
While it remains unclear at this time whether the Bitcoin price has reached its pre-halving bottom, it is possible that BTC will gradually move from the Pre-Hallowing Withdrawal phase to the “Reaccumulation” phase (red phase).
As a result, this phase of reaccumulation could proceed simply as a regular horizontal interval, like the cycles seen so far.
The third phase is the parabolic rise phase and this phase can last more than a year.
Historically, this phase has lasted just over a year (~385 days), but due to the Accelerated Cycle currently in place, this number of days may be halved in this market cycle.”
3 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving
1. Final Pre-Halving Retrace
A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur a 28 to 14 days before the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)
In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep and lasted 3-4 days
In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was… pic.twitter.com/wgGtVsZbnB
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 4, 2024
*This is not investment advice.
