Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe challenged the narrative of a predicted “big Bitcoin crash” in 2026, arguing that this scenario is not supported by data.
According to Van de Poppe, while the widespread expectation in the markets that “2026 will be a very tough year” seems logical at first glance, historical cycles, liquidity conditions, and Bitcoin’s current position within the global financial system do not align with this view. The analyst specifically stated that the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer valid and that the market is evolving into a new structure more focused on institutional capital.
Van de Poppe pointed out that looking at past cycles, there were sharp corrections of approximately 30% in 2014, 74% in 2018, and 64% in 2022. Therefore, investors are naturally concerned about another major downturn, but the analyst argued that this doesn’t automatically mean 2026 will be the same. According to the analyst, the current cycle is already following a different course than previous years and has deviated from classic patterns.
Another point that stood out in the analysis was the divergence between gold and Bitcoin. Van de Poppe stated that capital has recently shifted significantly towards gold, with gold surpassing its historical highs while Bitcoin has remained relatively weak. However, he argued that this signals a systemic break and that similar periods in the past have been followed by stronger rallies in risky assets. Recalling that the market value of gold increased by trillions of dollars in a short time, the analyst stated that Bitcoin also holds much higher potential in a similar liquidity environment.
On the macroeconomic front, rising unemployment rates, a downward trend in bond yields, and the increasing liquidity needs of central banks stand out. Van de Poppe stated that, particularly in the US, the weakening labor market and the burden of government debt are forcing interest rates down, creating a supportive environment for risky assets in the long term. In this context, he argued that neither gold nor Bitcoin appear overvalued when compared to the money supply (M2).
Touching upon Bitcoin’s technical outlook against gold, the analyst noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into oversold regions, a historically rare occurrence, and that these levels have typically coincided with bottoming out. Therefore, Van de Poppe suggested that the widespread expectation of an “inevitable big crash” in 2026 might be exaggerated, arguing that markets are closer to a surprise rebound than a downward movement under current conditions.
In conclusion, Van de Poppe stated that it’s impossible to definitively say whether 2026 will be a bull or bear year, but the data points to stabilization and potential upside surprises rather than a major crash. According to the analyst, if Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 level again, the movement could accelerate as currently pessimistic investors re-enter the market.
*This is not investment advice.