Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared his Bitcoin scenarios. According to the analyst…
While Bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range for weeks, the fact that volatility has fallen to its lowest levels during the correction period signals that a strong breakout is approaching in the market. Van de Poppe predicted three different scenarios for the coming weeks, arguing that the ultimate target in all scenarios is the $80,000 level.
The first scenario suggests that Bitcoin could break above its current range and reach $80,000 directly. According to the analyst, the $74,000 resistance level has been tested three times, weakening with each test. The RSI indicator being at 40 indicates neither strong buying nor excessive selling pressure in the market, while investor sentiment is at historically low levels. Van de Poppe also notes that with the increase in geopolitical tensions centered on Iran, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a “safe haven” asset. The probability of this scenario occurring is estimated at 35%.
According to the second and most likely scenario, Bitcoin may experience a brief pullback to the $64,000–$66,000 range before the rally. The analyst notes that there are many long positions in this region, and the triggering of stop-loss orders could provide a new influx of liquidity into the market. Van de Poppe states that after such a “liquidity sweep,” selling pressure would decrease, and the price could move upwards more healthily. He also recalls a similar pattern seen in February, which showed a rapid recovery after a break to the downside. This scenario has a 45% probability, making it the most likely scenario.
In the third scenario, if the $64,000–$66,000 range fails to act as support, the decline could deepen to the $52,000–$54,000 range. According to the analyst, this is only possible if geopolitical risks escalate significantly or if there is a sudden panic in the markets. However, it is noted that strong buy orders have accumulated below $60,000, and these levels historically present a significant “buying opportunity.” The probability of this scenario occurring is seen as 20%.
Van de Poppe states that he has shaped his investment strategy around these three scenarios. He indicates that in the event of a direct breakout, the upward trend will be followed, while in pullback scenarios, the $64,000–$66,000 and $52,000–$54,000 ranges will be considered buying zones. In both cases, the first target is $80,000, at which point profit taking is planned for some positions.
The analyst states that, based on current data, the most likely scenario is a pullback to the $64,000–$66,000 range, followed by a strong rebound towards $80,000. However, Van de Poppe emphasizes that the possibility of a direct rise should not be ignored, and that the least likely scenario is a deeper decline, but in this case, the most attractive buying opportunity may arise.
*This is not investment advice.