While the tension between Iran and Israel continues to be effective in the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin and altcoins, there was a sudden decline again last night.
While BTC fell back to $ 62,000, the analyst who expected a rally before the halving also gave up.
At this point, 10X Research founder Markus Thielen, who predicted that there would be a pre-halving rally and the price would rise to record levels, started to decline in risk assets, including technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, for various reasons.
Thielen, who stated in a note to his clients that the upward trend in cryptocurrencies has decreased, wrote that in this case, the decrease in the possibility of the FED to cut interest rates, the increase in bond yields and the decrease in flows to spot BTC ETFs listed in the USA were effective.
“Our growing concern for risky assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies and stocks is that they are on the verge of a significant price correction.
The primary and most important reason for this situation is unexpected and permanent inflation. This means that the FED will keep interest rates higher for a long time, and at this point, the possibility of the FED reducing interest rates decreases.
Because much of the 2023/2024 Bitcoin rally is driven by expectations that interest rates will be lowered, and this narrative is now being seriously questioned.
Another important reason is that flows into US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have dried up. Because high inflows to ETFs also had a great impact on the BTC rally.
After the initial novelty excitement, ETF flows tend to dry up unless prices continue to rise.”
Finally, the analyst stated that the increase in bond yields is also effective in the decline in risky assets such as BTC. “The so-called hawkish repricing, encouraged by the economy with sticky US inflation and the resilient labor market, has increased the 10-year Treasury bond yield by 40 basis points this month, starting from November 2023.” “This rate, which is called the risk-free interest rate, has reduced the attractiveness of investing in high-risk/high-return assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.” said.
Bitcoin continues to trade at $62,970 at the time of writing.
*This is not investment advice.