Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, an independent investment advisory firm specializing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), shared his prediction for the future of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US market.
In a series of tweets on August 9, 2023, Geraci said that his belief that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will eventually approve spot bitcoin ETFs is close to 100%.
Geraci based his estimate on two factors: the outcome of a lawsuit filed by Grayscale Investments against the SEC and the custody-sharing agreement (SSA) between Coinbase and the CBOE.
Grayscale Investments, the world's largest digital currency asset manager, filed its lawsuit against the SEC in June 2022 after the regulator rejected its application to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot bitcoin ETF.
Geraci stated that he believes Grayscale will win its lawsuit against the SEC, and that the combination of Grayscale winning the lawsuit and Coinbase's SSA would be enough for the SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs.
As for the timing of the approval, Geraci stated that it remained true to its original estimate of January 2024. He also stated that BlackRock, the world's largest asset management firm, will be the first to launch a spot BTC ETF, as BlackRock believes it is critical for Nasdaq to secure an SSA with Coinbase.
He added that he expects the SEC to approve other competitors very quickly after that.
*Not investment advice.