In a recent deep dive into on-chain data, an analyst from cryptocurrency analytics firm CryptoQuant identified two potential paths for Bitcoin (BTC), both leading to the $150,000 price point.
The analysis, which covered nearly 100 hours of research, according to the analyst, revealed some interesting information.
According to the analyst, net unrealized profits and losses (NUPL) are currently hovering around the 0.49 level and approaching the 0.54 level, which marks a peak in 2019. Although the 2019 level has not yet been reached, a significant number of investors are already in profit.
The analyst also reached 1.83 in the Puell Multiple, another important market indicator. There is still a way to go for this value to reach the resistance level of 2.05 in 2019.
Puell Multiple is a rate derived from miner profitability and revenue stress on the Bitcoin network. It is calculated by dividing the daily coin issuance (in USD) by the 365-day moving average. High values indicate that current miner profitability is high compared to the annual average and more selling pressure can be expected. Conversely, low values indicate that current miner profitability is low compared to the annual average and suggest that some miners may need to start reducing hashing power by shutting down their machines. This could reduce miners' impact on the liquid supply.
Interestingly, open interest (OI) in Bitcoin is on the rise and is currently at levels similar to the first rally of 2021. However, unlike 2021, OI is slowly rising and has not yet experienced a peak breakout, indicating that such an event may still be on the horizon, according to the analyst.
The analyst presented two scenarios:
- Scenario A: This scenario reflects the events of 2019, when supply at a loss bottomed out at 16% and then started to rise again. If this scenario happens, BTC price could drop to the realized price line ($23,000) in the next six months before following Scenario B.
- Scenario B: In this scenario, supply at a loss declines to 3% over the next six months. If this happens, BTC could experience a major bull run, potentially reaching $150,000.
The analyst believes that Scenario B is more likely as no new money has entered the market and an OI boom has not occurred yet.
*This is not investment advice.
