Authorities in Norway that award the Nobel Peace Prize have launched an investigation after unusual activity in online predictions about this year's winner.
Norwegian opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her fight to defend democracy. However, shortly before the award was announced, predictions for Machado on the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket saw a noticeable increase. According to the platform's data, prediction volume rose sharply just after midnight Norwegian time.
Nobel Institute Spokesperson Erik Aasheim, in a statement following reports by local press outlets Aftenposten and Finansavisen, said, “We have launched an investigation into the matter.”
According to local sources, the secretive five-member Nobel Committee made its decision on Monday. Machado was notified of the award just minutes before the 11 a.m. Oslo time announcement on Friday.
According to Finansavisen, three accounts that heavily predicted Machado on Polymarket earned a total of approximately $90,000.
Norwegian authorities are investigating whether this unusual activity suggests the award decision may have been leaked.
*This is not investment advice.
