Bitcoin’s recent price action has sparked debate among analysts, with analyst Joao Wedson expressing concerns over what he described as “the most complex distribution process” he has ever seen.
With BTC currently hovering around key support levels, Wedson assessed whether BTC has entered a bear market.
According to Wedson, Bitcoin has gone through a complex cycle that includes distribution, accumulation, and a false breakout engineered by exchanges. The recent price action could signal a second Major Signal of Weakness (MSOW), which could pull Bitcoin below $64,000.
A second MSOW typically occurs when Bitcoin fails to reclaim key resistance levels after an initial sign of weakness. If this scenario occurs with increased volume, it could signal further redistribution and a continuation of the downtrend. Conversely, decreasing volume could signal sellers are exhausted, reducing the likelihood of a deeper decline.
Wedson highlights two critical market metrics that could determine Bitcoin’s next move:
- Real Market Average Price: Currently at $63,800, this metric reflects the average BTC price excluding mining-related transactions. Historically, this level has served as strong support, as seen during the 2021 China Ban. Losing this level could trigger further declines.
- Alpha Price Levels: Wedson identified three key price targets based on network behavior:
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- $75,500 (upper resistance)
- $66,000 (mid-range)
- $52,800 (potential lower support)
Despite concerns about a potential downtrend, Wedson is cautious about labeling the current price action as a confirmed bear market.
*This is not investment advice.
