Shaw Walters, founder of Eliza Labs, strongly rejected claims that quantum computers could threaten Bitcoin (BTC).
In a comprehensive assessment published on the X platform, Walters argued that there is a “huge gap” between real progress in quantum computing and the perception of it by the media and the public.
According to Walters, quantum computers will not reach a level where they can break cryptography within the next 40-50 years, as has been claimed. Regarding hash functions specifically, Walters stated that even in the most optimistic scenario, only the Grover algorithm would be usable, which reduces the search space in algorithms like SHA-256 from 2²⁵⁶ to 2¹²⁸. However, he argued that 2¹²⁸ is still not just “difficult to break,” but physically impossible.
“Quantum computing is much further removed from what the media portrays,” said Walters, acknowledging that the field is exciting and full of real research, but claiming that this research will lead to revolutionary results in the short term is unrealistic. Walters stated that even in his discussions with numerous competent researchers, this distinction is frequently overlooked, even leading intelligent people to erroneous conclusions.
Walters also mentioned the Shor algorithm, which is frequently cited in public discourse, noting that while it can theoretically target public-key systems like RSA and ECDSA, in practice even today’s most advanced quantum computers cannot factorize the number 21 into its prime factors without knowing the result beforehand.
According to Walters, even if quantum computers were millions of times faster, cracking Bitcoin would require repeating these processes continuously on a live network within minutes. He stated that if this were possible, not only Bitcoin but all private and encrypted data in the world would be compromised, adding, “If this were possible, Bitcoin would be the least of our problems.”
Walters also emphasized that modern cryptography was designed to anticipate future increases in computing power, stating that quadratic accelerations were already factored in and “priced in” decades ago. He concluded his statement with a stern warning, arguing that the fear and hype surrounding quantum computers stemmed largely from ignorance.
*This is not investment advice.
