As Bitcoin continues to perform strongly recently, the expectations of investors and analysts are also increasing.
At this point, as the halving, which is seen as an important catalyst for BTC and cryptocurrencies, approaches, bullish expectations also increase.
Speaking to Coindesk, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said that he expects Bitcoin to continue its rise.
Thielen said that data from past halving cycles and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator were effective in this upward expectation.
“1.Rise Signal: Past Halving Cycle Data”
Pointing out that Bitcoin increased by over 30% in the eight weeks until the halving, as it has experienced in other halving cycles, the analyst stated that if history repeats itself, the BTC price could be traded close to $ 69,000, the previous ATH, on or before the halving day.
“Looking at previous halving cycles, Bitcoin increased by an average of 32% in the eight weeks, or 60 days, before the halving.
This 32% upside means the BTC price could trade close to the previous record high of $69,000 on or before the halving day.
The closer we get to Bitcoin halving, the more likely Bitcoin is to rise, as evidence from the last three halving cycles shows.
At this point, the community mostly thinks that the halving will bring an increase, so this halving will not be different from the others.”
“2nd Bullish Signal: RSI Indicator”
Apart from the halving, the RSI indicator also gives a bullish signal for BTC.
At this point, Thielen stated that last week Bitcoin's 14-day RSI exceeded 80 for the first time since January and said, “According to past data, 12 of the 14 signals received from the RSI so far pointed to an increase, and the 60-day period following the day of this signal.” “It achieved an average gain of 54%.” said.
Underlining that RSI and historical halving cycle data give bullish signals, Thielen stated that these signals point to $ 74,600 for BTC:
“For reference, Bitcoin was trading at $48,294 when the last bullish signal was triggered, and if history repeats itself (+54% average return in 60 days) then BTC could rally to $74,600 based on this signal.
However, with all this data, it is important to remember that past performances do not guarantee future results and ignore that macroeconomic factors can create trends on their own.”
Bitcoin continues to trade at $52,384 at the time of writing.
*This is not investment advice.