While the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin showed a downward trend after its ATH in March and the halving in April, BTC briefly fell below $ 60,000 yesterday evening, reaching a new local low of $ 58,500.
While this decline continues in US spot Bitcoin ETFs this week, Bitfinex analysts evaluated the recent decline in BTC and the intense outflows in ETFs.
Bitfinex analysts said the outflows and declines in BTC ETFs were due to the combined effect of weak-handed ETF investors reacting to short-term negative news and the unwinding of basis/funding arbitrage due to negative funding rates.
According to analysts, one sign that the basis/funding arbitrage is loosening is the sharp decline in open interest in Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and other trading platforms.
“This reduction in Bitcoin futures open interest coincides with the negative funding rates and ETF outflows observed on various exchanges over the past week, indicating a significant unwinding of funding arbitrage transactions associated with ETF flows.”
Has the Bottom Come in Bitcoin?
Analysts stated that despite the BTC sales by the German government and the general market, institutional Bitcoin bull MicroStrategy's recent purchase of 11,931 BTC worth $ 786 million provided some balance to the market, and said that intense ETF outflows are generally associated with the formation of local bottoms.
Analysts who believe that BTC may be approaching the bottom due to ETF outflows said:
“The intense ETF outflows did not directly translate into spot BTC sales.
Additionally, historical data shows that ETF outflows often precede the formation of local bottoms in the BTC price.
“This pattern (ETF outflows and price declines) is critical for investors to follow because it often provides clues to potential reversals in the market.”
While ETF outflows signaled a bottom for Bitcoin, Bitfinex analysts warned investors that market sentiment was bearish as BTC and cryptocurrencies still showed weakness on lower timeframes (one-minute to 15-minute charts).
*This is not investment advice.