Following Grayscale's legal victory against regulator U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart put the odds of the agency approving spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this year from 65% to 75%. He increased it to .
Analysts also estimate that there is a 95% chance of spot Bitcoin ETFs being released by the end of 2024.
Grayscale, the world's largest digital asset manager, won the lawsuit it filed against the SEC on August 29, 2023 to convert the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) product into a spot BTC ETF. The SEC argued that GBTC did not meet requirements for an ETF, such as providing adequate liquidity, transparency and investor protection.
Balchunas and Seyffart said the court decision was “beyond expectations” and left the SEC with “very little leeway” to deny further applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs. They noted that it faces SEC deadlines, negative public relations, and a new approach from Hashdex to launch a spot BTC ETF.
Hashdex, a Brazilian asset manager, had filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF that would use a third-party cryptocurrency custodian to hold the underlying asset, BTCs, rather than buying and selling them directly on exchanges.
*Not investment advice.