Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX and a closely followed figure in the cryptocurrency markets, has published his new article titled “Frowny Cloud”.
In his article, Hayes argued that the main reason Bitcoin (BTC) might not perform as expected throughout 2025 is the tightening of US dollar liquidity. According to him, the tightening of dollar lending conditions in the global financial system has suppressed appetite for risky assets, directly impacting cryptocurrency markets.
Hayes stated that the Federal Reserve’s (FED) tight monetary policy stance, balance sheet reduction process, and more cautious lending trends in the banking sector will make liquidity conditions more difficult in 2025.
In this environment, he stated that high-risk and volatile assets like Bitcoin have become less attractive to investors. According to Hayes, BTC’s weak price performance should be explained by macroeconomic dynamics rather than technical factors.
However, the experienced investor paints a more optimistic picture for 2026. Hayes predicts that US dollar-denominated credit will enter a new expansion phase in the coming period.
In this context, he stated that the Fed expects renewed growth in its balance sheet, increased lending appetite from banks, and a decline in mortgage interest rates. He argued that these developments could create a supportive environment for risky assets by injecting new liquidity into the market.
Hayes stated that if this scenario materializes, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, as well as stocks and other risky assets, could regain strong upward momentum. According to him, a sustained bull trend in the crypto markets is difficult without an improvement in macro liquidity conditions.
*This is not investment advice.
