Facing a massive sell-off in June and July, Bitcoin is struggling to rise.
Analyzing the reasons for this, Bitfinex analysts stated in their report this week that Bitcoin may have potentially reached a local bottom.
Bitcoin price agrees with German government on Mt. Gox fell to $53,219 on July 3 due to concerns that creditors would sell and increased fear, uncertainty and doubt in the market.
Afterwards, BTC showed a recovery trend over the weekend and rose above $ 58,000.
At this point, Bitfinex analysts Mt. He claimed that market data over the weekend showed that Bitcoin may have reached a local bottom, even though Gox has yet to distribute approximately 67% of the BTC (94,457 BTC) to be distributed to creditors.
According to analysts, weekend data points to a potential bottom, while volatility data indicates market stability.
“Bitcoin prices fell below its 120-day range to $53,219 on July 3 as the market reacted to sellout fears from both the German government and Mt. Gox creditors. But weekend market data suggests a potential local bottom has been reached.”
There Are Multiple Reasons Why Bitcoin's Fall Should Stop!
Bitfinex said at this point there are multiple reasons why its Bitcoin decline should stop soon. Among the reasons that suggest that Bitcoin may recover in the near future, the first is the decline in the SOPR rate and negative funding rates.
According to Bitfinex analysts, the SOPR ratio of short-term investors reached 0.97 as of July 6, indicating that short-term investors are selling at a loss and their sales are about to run out.
Additionally, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures turned negative for the first time since May 1, indicating that the market is stabilizing or near a bottom.
“Historically, after this decrease in SOPR, selling pressure eases, leading to a recovery in prices.
Negative funding rates and low short-term SOPR values have historically marked the bottom of price corrections.”
As the third reason, analysts put forward the narrowing of the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility. According to analysts, this indicates that the market expects more stability and BTC may remain at current levels or at least experience less severe declines.
FED's Cautious Stance Negatively Affects Bitcoin!
Analysts recently stated that many data point to the bottom and potential recovery in Bitcoin, but Bitcoin's rise was prevented due to important news in the market.
He said that these negative news include Germany's BTC transfers, Mt.Gox and the FED's cautious stance on interest rate cuts.
“On the macroeconomic front, the FED remains cautious about reducing interest rates despite FED minutes, labor market data and the decline in inflation. Although a rate cut at the next policy meeting on July 30-31 is unlikely, there is hope for a cut in September.”
*This is not investment advice.