Bitcoin (BTC) has recently experienced a series of sharp declines. While the price has fallen below $73,000, Bitcoin has been trading in a relatively narrow range between $70,000 and $79,999 for approximately five days.
Analyst James Van Straten, evaluating this situation, stated that according to Glassnode data, Bitcoin has spent very little time in the $70,000-$80,000 range and has a limited transaction history within this range.
Therefore, this price range with low trading volume lacks strong historical support or resistance, and could become a consolidation zone or experience a drop to $70,000.
Risk of Bitcoin Decline Increases!
According to the analyst, Bitcoin has historically been stuck in a fragile range with low trading volume, increasing the risk of further price corrections.
The analyst noted that, according to Glassnode data, BTC has only spent about 35 days at its current price level, which is insufficient time to establish a solid support or resistance line.
Bitcoin crossed this range very quickly. According to the analyst, the on-chain URPD supply indicator also reveals that the supply between $70,000 and $80,000 is structurally low.
Perhaps the clearest example of how quickly Bitcoin moves in this range occurred with Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November 2024. In just a few weeks, the BTC price surged from around $68,000 to $100,000, leaving little opportunity for consolidation between $70,000 and $80,000.
There were very few purchases from large institutions in this price range. Even Strategy (MSTR), the largest institutional Bitcoin holder, only bought Bitcoin once during this period. This was in November 2024, when the company purchased 27,200 BTC at an average price of $74,463.
In conclusion, according to the analyst, the data suggests that a price bounce from the current level is unlikely due to insufficient buying activity, and that BTC will either move sideways to form a support base or retest lower price zones with stronger support.
Bottoming Signals Are Also Coming!
The analyst also stated, based on Glassnode data, that BTC’s on-chain profit/loss ratio is converging, signaling a potential market bottom.
According to this, the supply of Bitcoin in profit is almost at the same level as the supply in loss. According to the analyst, this situation is usually observed at market lows. Currently, 11.1 million BTC are in profit, while 8.9 million BTC are in loss, and the difference is narrowing due to price drops. Historically, lows occur when these two metrics converge.
This situation also occurred in November 2022, March 2020, January 2019, and 2015. According to current data, the price point where the supply of goods in profit and loss will equalize is estimated to be around $60,000.
*This is not investment advice.