Bitcoin could rally to $180,000 next year if its historical post-election trends continue, according to Wall Street asset manager VanEck. But analysts at the firm warn that two critical indicators could signal that forecast is off course.
Speaking during a webinar, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, reiterated the firm’s confidence in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, driven by BTC halving events. These events, which reduce the supply of newly produced Bitcoin by half, have historically triggered significant price increases.
“Bitcoin’s gains tend to peak a year after the halving,” Sigel explained. Bitcoin’s most recent halving occurred in April 2024, potentially setting the stage for significant bullish momentum in 2025.
Based on historical data, Bitcoin’s price could rise by nearly 1,000% from its recent low of $18,000 to a peak of $180,000. However, Sigel noted that several metrics should be monitored that could signal speculative excess or market weakness.
VanEck analysts have identified two key warning signs that could signal a reversal:
Continuous Funding Rates
Sigel warned that a sustained funding rate above 10% for more than two months generally reflects speculative excess in the market.
“Right now, the funding rate has exceeded 10%, but only for a few weeks,” he said. Persistently high funding rates indicate excessive demand for long positions, which could lead to a correction in the market.
Relative Unrealized Profit
“We recently hit 0.6, so forward yields are still promising,” Sigel said. “But if we hit 0.7, it’s probably time to consider a top call.”
VanEck’s predictions extend well beyond 2025. Sigel predicted that Bitcoin could reach $3 million per token by 2050 as nation-states continue to adopt and strategically accumulate it.
Sigel noted a hypothetical scenario in which the U.S. government creates a national Bitcoin reserve, as has been proposed by lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis. If the U.S. were to acquire 1 million Bitcoins during President-elect Donald Trump’s second term, and Bitcoin appreciated at an average annual rate of 25%, its price could exceed $42 million per token by 2050.
But Sigel acknowledged the challenges of such a scenario. “Adoption at the nation-state level is critical for Bitcoin to reach multimillion-dollar valuations,” he said, but added that congressional enthusiasm for such measures has been limited.
*This is not investment advice.
