In a recent speech, Rip VanWinkle, managing director at Bitcoin company Swan, shared his views on the potential trajectory of the BTC price in the current and future bull cycles.
He cited predictions from Samson Mow and Fred Krueger, who recently predicted a $1 million target for BTC this cycle. “Does that sound crazy? I don't think so,” he said.
VanWinkle explained that he decided to take a 10-year view of the Bitcoin price using weekly candles to gain some perspective. “What is clear is that Bitcoin has been in the same long-term uptrend since 2013, as defined in the channel below. All price movements since 2013 have been contained within the boundaries of this long-term channel,” he said.
He then posed a question: “Where could prices go if Bitcoin starts moving towards the upper trend line in the long-term channel, as it has done after every previous halving?” VanWinkle suggested that the current trend could give an idea of potential price levels, assuming the trend remains intact:
“Note in the chart below how BTC pulled up the lower trend line, as it did in 2015 and 2016, before bursting through the channel in 2017 and culminating in a top of $20,000. “He's doing exactly the same thing right now.”
He pointed out that Bitcoin is up 100x this cycle and claimed that if it crosses the channel from here and reaches the upper trend line by winter 2025, it could mean a 40x price increase.
VanWinkle also discussed the highs of the 2013 and 2017 bull rallies. However, he noted that the 2021 rally was cut short:
“If BTC compensates for this brief rally by reaching the upper trend line 18 months after the halving, we will reach $2 million per coin in autumn-winter 2025 and more than $20 million per coin in 2029. “Nobody expects this, so it could happen.”
He also touched on widespread predictions of a Bitcoin price in the $100,000 to $200,000 price range. “In the context of the long-term trend, they are basically saying that BTC will continue to creep at the lower trend line, despite the historic buying of $500 million per day of net inflows from spot ETFs,” he said.
VanWinkle expressed his belief that many people may not be aware of how quickly Bitcoin supply is being absorbed. “I really don't understand. All this buying is supposed to push the price somewhere deep in this channel. Even the midpoint of the channel puts the price in the $700,000 range this cycle,” he said.
He concluded his words as follows:
“Anything is possible. But given the macro backdrop, multiple wars and inevitable money printing, I think a push deeper into this channel is likely. We'll see.”
VanWinkle's $20 million price prediction would increase the coin's total market cap to $400 trillion, given BTC's current supply. However, considering that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the entire world is 105 trillion dollars, this target may not be realistic.
*This is not investment advice.