The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), fell back to around $68,000 this week from the $76,000 it reached last week, marking the fifth week of the US-Iran conflict.
This escalation was triggered by statements from US President Donald Trump. Trump gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening attacks on its energy facilities if it did not comply. In response, Iran warned that if attacked, it would completely close the vital Strait of Hormuz and target its energy facilities.
This situation increased geopolitical tensions, causing Bitcoin to fall.
The recent decline has also negatively impacted investor expectations. Polymarket investors predict that Bitcoin is more likely to fall than rise in the short term.
On the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, investors rate the probability of Bitcoin reaching $60,000 before $80,000 at 62%.
At this point, investors believe that a decline in Bitcoin is more likely than an increase in the short term.
In a prediction titled “What price will Bitcoin reach in March?” on Polymarket, below $65,000 was the most popular guess.
- A drop below $65,000 is the most likely scenario, with a 55% probability.
- This is followed by a 19% probability that Bitcoin will surpass $60,000 in March.
- Finally, the chance of Bitcoin rising above $80,000 is only around 8%.
*This is not investment advice.