Kamala Harris’ surprising lead over Donald Trump in the presidential polls coincided with the recent drop in Bitcoin prices, according to a new report from Bernstein analysts.
While Harris has been leading Trump in several polls, including those on cryptocurrency-backed prediction platform Polymarket, Bitcoin has shown signs of weakening. Analysts at Bernstein suggest the correlation is no coincidence.
“Our interpretation of current market sentiment is that a Trump win is bullish, while a Harris win is bearish (at least in terms of immediate market reaction),” the report said.
Bitcoin has lost 3% of its value since Harris was nominated on Aug. 4. During that time, Bitcoin fell below $50,000 during a rapid market crash triggered by the unwinding of the yen carry trade. The largest cryptocurrency has yet to reclaim its all-time high of $73,700, which it reached in March.
“Rising Harris’ Polymarkets stake has rattled crypto markets, with Bitcoin remaining range-bound and unable to reclaim previous June highs of around $70,000,” Bernstein analysts wrote.
This year’s presidential election marks the first time cryptocurrencies have become a major issue on a major ballot. Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance on the campaign trail, including his promise to establish a national Bitcoin treasury, support miners and even fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler if he wins, has resonated with the crypto community. High-profile industry figures like Messari co-founder Ryan Selkis have expressed strong support for Trump.
At the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, Trump announced that his campaign had raised approximately $25 million from the crypto community.
*This is not investment advice.