Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart significantly lowered their estimates for the likelihood of Ethereum spot ETFs being approved by May. Balchunas lowered his forecast from 60-70% to 30%, while Seyffart became less optimistic as the deadline approached.
Despite the declining odds, market maker GSR remains hopeful about approval. However, both JPMorgan and TD Cowen predict approval will not come in May.
Balchunas said the following on the subject:
“The probability of ETH ETFs being approved by the May deadline has dropped to 35%. We understand all the reasons why they should confirm and we personally believe they should, but the signs and resources that made us optimistic with 2.5 months left for BTC spot are not present this time. Remember that 35 is not 0%, it is still possible and we believe it will happen in the long term.”
Seyffart explained his thoughts as follows:
“This Ethereum ETF cycle currently appears to be the opposite of the Bitcoin ETF approval likelihood. The more we see and hear, and the less we see and hear, the less optimistic I become. “There are approximately 73 days until the deadline and there appears to be little to no movement.”
In their statements in January, Balchunas predicted a 70% chance of approval by May, while Seyffart predicted a 60-65% chance.
*This is not investment advice.
