Bitcoin (BTC) failed to meet year-end growth expectations with the sharp declines it experienced in the last quarter of 2025. Analysts state that BTC is preparing to close the year below $100,000, while expectations for a rise are concentrated in 2026.
At this point, the latest prediction comes from BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. According to Decrypt, Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin could rise to $200,000 by March, but then decline and bottom out above $124,000.
Hayes said the sharp rise in Bitcoin price would be due to “Reserve Management Purchases (RMP),” a new operating policy announced by the Fed at its latest FOMC meeting.
At this point, Hayes argued that the Federal Reserve’s RMP program, which involves purchasing $40 billion worth of short-term Treasury bonds monthly, functions as a form of quantitative easing (QE), even though the central bank characterizes it as a liquidity management tool.
Hayes stated that he liked QE because it meant printing money, and that this money printing boosted Bitcoin.
The Fed argues that RMP and QE are different, but according to Hayes, they are the same thing, and until investors realize this similarity, the Bitcoin price will remain flat between $80,000 and $100,000.
According to Hayes, the price of BTC will start to rise when investors realize that RMP and QE are similar.
Arguing that monetary easing has historically been a driving force for Bitcoin, Hayes said:
“While the market equates RMP with QE, this change will likely push the Bitcoin price beyond the psychological barrier of $124,000 and towards $200,000 by March 2026.”
After that, Bitcoin will fall and form a local bottom well above $124,000.”
*This is not investment advice.