Are Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoins in Danger? What Happens If the Passwords to His Wallets Are Cracked?

Alex Thorn, Head of Corporate Research at Galaxy Digital, a leading company in the cryptocurrency market, made noteworthy assessments regarding the potential interactions between Bitcoin and quantum technologies.

Thorn shared the common insights that emerged from his meetings with investors, developers, and industry representatives at events held in Las Vegas.

According to Thorn, one of the most sensitive issues in the Bitcoin ecosystem is the status of early coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto. He notes that these coins are largely held in P2PK (Pay-to-Public-Key) addresses, arguing that tampering with these assets could harm Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition of property rights. However, Thorn also states that the risk isn’t as great as it’s often portrayed, pointing out that these coins are distributed across approximately 22,000 separate addresses, each containing 50 BTC. This suggests that a potential quantum attack would require targeting a large number of addresses rather than a single one.

On the other hand, Thorn stated that the biggest risk is actually concentrated in “honey pot” structures such as centralized exchanges and active wallets, but these parties can switch to quantum-resistant (post-quantum) addresses when needed. He also noted that the proposal known as “hourglass” offers a potential solution that could mitigate long-term quantum threats.

Thorn also touched upon the current state of quantum technology, noting that “neutral atom” technology, in particular, is limited to long-range attacks and does not pose a widespread threat in the short term. He added that Google opening a new laboratory in this field could indicate that different technological approaches are being tested in the sector.

Thorn, who also analyzed data on market dynamics, pointed out that Bitcoin markets have been able to absorb large supply shocks in the past. According to him, markets have been able to balance even movements of millions of BTC over time. He stated that even in the worst-case scenario, if Satoshi’s own coins were to enter the market, preserving Bitcoin’s fundamental principles at the cost of a drop of up to 50% could be considered acceptable by many investors.

Thorn also emphasized the importance of continuing post-quantum cryptography research for Bitcoin. He stated that developing, testing, and keeping new cryptographic solutions ready for use when needed would benefit the ecosystem, but also pointed out some risks to consider in this process. These include the dispersion of developer resources, the addition of insufficiently tested technologies to the protocol, and disagreements slowing down network updates.

*This is not investment advice.