QCP Capital has presented a new analysis of the cryptocurrency market, revealing key developments and upcoming events that could shape the market’s direction in the coming weeks.
According to the firm, Bitcoin's price action has been “something extraordinary,” rising by over 8% and recently surpassing the $73,000 level.
Several factors contributed to this rally, including strong inflows into spot ETFs, new quantitative easing cycles in major economies, and growing optimism surrounding crypto-friendly presidential candidate Donald Trump.
QCP Capital noted that Trump is gaining momentum in the polls, with key swing states like Nevada and Pennsylvania potentially tipping the scales. As the US presidential race enters its final week, market participants are closely watching to see if the so-called “Trump Trade” will continue or if there will be unexpected changes.
In the immediate future, QCP Capital emphasized the importance of this Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a key indicator of the health of the U.S. labor market. Analysts are forecasting a job gain of around 110,000, about half of the previous figure. This data release will be the last major economic indicator before the Fed meeting next Friday. Current market expectations are tilted toward more rate cuts, with a 96.5% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) cut in November and a 75% chance of an additional cut in December. The market is pricing in a total of 1.6 rate cuts by year-end.
Additionally, QCP Capital noted that five of its “Fab 7” stocks are reporting earnings this week: Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft. Each company is expected to post earnings growth of 19% to 20% on average, but that would be the slowest pace of growth in the past six quarters. While the impact on stocks remains uncertain, these results will be important indicators of broader market sentiment.
The firm concluded that with the presidential election and critical economic data looming on the horizon, the coming days could be crucial for both traditional and crypto markets, shaping investor expectations and setting the stage for potential market volatility.
*This is not investment advice.