After a bearish start to the summer, Bitcoin appears to be making a comeback. Some analysts predict that a new rally will begin.
“The stage looks set for Bitcoin's next bullish run,” David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, and former forex trader Chris Mill write in their latest “Connecting the Dots” newsletter.
However, it may take some time for Bitcoin to break the record of $73,700 set in March. Here are four factors that will drive this rally, according to analysts:
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Political Climate
Noelle Acheson, former head of market insights at Genesis Global Trading, wrote in her “Crypto is Macro Now” newsletter about how an increasingly likely Trump presidency would boost the price of Bitcoin. The odds of a second Trump term have skyrocketed following the assassination attempt on Sunday, according to crypto prediction site Polymarket. Trump has positioned himself as a pro-cryptocurrency candidate after previously calling Bitcoin a “fraud against the dollar.” Industry representatives hope Trump will oust Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, an outspoken crypto critic, and replace him with a more crypto-friendly agency head.
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Changing Attitudes in Washington
“Crypto has faced open hostility from Washington in recent years, hindering the industry's growth,” Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, wrote in a recent investor note. “But in one of the most striking developments of the last few months, attitudes have changed sharply.” With both Democrats and Republicans voting for legislation seen as pro-crypto, Hougan calls this a “game changer” and adds that he has “never seen a better long-term structure for crypto than now.” He believes this could catapult Bitcoin to $100,000 by the end of 2025.
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Discount on Interest Rates
Confidence, which reached an all-time high, increased as the US central bank signaled a cut in interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday that the latest inflation data in the second quarter supports “confidence” that the economy is returning to the central bank's targets. This raised the possibility of interest rates being cut in September and provided a bullish signal for riskier assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. “Now is the time,” say Brickell and Mill.
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Artificial Intelligence and Bitcoin Mining
According to Bernstein analysts, artificial intelligence will push Bitcoin to $200,000 by the end of 2025. In a research note published last week, they said Bitcoin miners meeting the growing demand for data for artificial intelligence will help prevent the price of Bitcoin from falling. Bernstein says that instead of selling their Bitcoin assets, they can benefit from a new revenue stream in artificial intelligence companies.
*This is not investment advice.
