As the US approaches its debt ceiling, analyst James Van Straten has suggested that January 20, 2025 (President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration day) could be a significant bottom for Bitcoin in its current cycle.
In a recent analysis, Van Straten highlighted Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s letter to congressional leaders warning that the U.S. could reach its debt limit between January 14 and 23, 2025. Yellen called on Congress to take immediate action to “preserve the full faith and credit of the United States,” noting that “extraordinary measures” may be needed to prevent a federal default.
The looming debt ceiling has already caused market unease. Following the announcement, U.S. stocks closed lower, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average losing around 1%. Bitcoin also fell, falling as much as 4% from its intraday high.
Historically, debt ceiling increases have coincided with bearish signals for Bitcoin. Over the last five cycles, BTC has either declined or underperformed in the days following debt ceiling adjustments.
Van Straten drew parallels between Bitcoin’s current price action and its performance during previous market cycles. Since the November 2022 low triggered by the FTX crash, Bitcoin has returned nearly 500%, closely mirroring its trajectory during the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles.
However, both previous cycles have seen significant declines at this stage, which, combined with the broader economic uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling, points to potential challenges ahead for Bitcoin, according to the analyst.
Adding to the uncertainty is the political transition period, which will see Donald Trump take office as President on January 20, 2025. Van Straten suggested that this date could mark a pivotal moment for Bitcoin. “It is possible that Trump’s inauguration could signal a bottom for Bitcoin,” he said, citing historical cycles and current market conditions.
*This is not investment advice.
