The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, suffered consecutive hard blows after its new ATH in March and fell to $ 53,000 levels.
However, BTC, which has experienced a strong recovery in recent weeks, approached $ 70,000 after Donald Trump's positive speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference.
While analysts generally stated that investor sentiment changed after Trump's support, Andre Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, explained the rise from a more technical perspective.
Stating that exactly 100 days have passed since the Bitcoin halving that took place in April, Andre Dragosch said that historical data shows that the upward effect of the halving appeared after 100 days.
Expecting the upward momentum in Bitcoin to accelerate from now on, Dragosch pointed out 400 days after the halving for the real rise.
Pointing out that the Bitcoin bull effect caused by the halving tends to occur after 100 days, the analyst said that he reached this conclusion by analyzing the performance data before and after three halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020.
“Today is exactly 100 days after the Bitcoin Halving event on April 20.
The market tends to have a short memory, which is where, based on historical data, the halving-induced supply slowdown should start to take effect from now on.
The study shows that average overperformance, which is the difference in performance between X number of days after the halving and
Buna göre önemli olan nokta, Halving’ten 100 gün sonra performans farkının istatistiksel olarak anlamlı hale gelmesi (T değeri > 2’yi aştı) ve ardından Halving’ten yaklaşık 400 gün sonrasına kadar giderek daha anlamlı hale gelmesidir.”
Speaking to Coindesk, Dragosch underlined that BTC's rise tends to accelerate after the 100th day after the halving and also shared the graphs of this prediction.
According to these graphs, the T value rises above 2 100 days after the halving and continues to increase thereafter. It peaks 400 days after the halving.
According to Andre Dragosch's analysis, the halving-induced bull trend in Bitcoin has started slowly and will show its effect on the 400th day after the halving.
Considering that 100 days have passed as of today, according to the analyst's chart, there are only 300 days left until the 400th day after the halving. This makes roughly 10 months and corresponds to May 2025.
*This is not investment advice.