Investors who have been trying to cope with the declines since the ATH in March have waited for October, the bullish month, for a rally in Bitcoin.
While strong increases are expected in October and beyond, option investors have also become active. However, the increase may be delayed a little longer.
According to Deribit data, investors have locked up over $990 million in the $100,000 call option for BTC.
This makes the $100,000 call the most popular Bitcoin option on Deribit, while the second most popular option is the $70,000 call option, which has over $800 million in open interest.
Speaking to Coindesk, Wintermute OTC Trader Jake Ostrovskis said, “The highest open interest for Bitcoin among all expiration dates appears to be at $100,000 and $70,000. Some market participants interpret this as supporting the bullish trend prevailing in the market.”
Jake Ostrovskis also noted that the most popular option for the US election, which is the November 8 expiration date, is the $45,000 put call.
The popularity of the $45,000 level is consistent with investors’ tendency to seek downside protection ahead of a binary event such as an election result, Ostrovskis said.
At this point, Ostrovskis stated that the $45,000 put options with a November 8 expiration date and the current volatility level showed a downward trend until the end of October and November, and that the current option situation supports the post-election rise, but a year-end bull could occur.
“The current level of volatility suggests a downward trend until late October-November when the market started to favour buy calls over put protection.
The current state of the options suggests a recovery is expected after the US election.”
Polymarket Sees $100K Probability as Low!
Investors in Polymarket think it is unlikely that prices will hit $100,000 by the end of the year.
According to Polymarket data, the “Yes” votes in the “Will Bitcoin Reach $100,000 by 2024” contract are around 15%, while investors think that the chance of “Bitcoin breaking the record level of $73,798 by the end of the year” is slightly above 50%.
*This is not investment advice.