According to Markus Thielen, Head of Crypto Research and Strategy at Matrixport, Bitcoin managed to avoid the bearish wave thanks to the recent temporary bill to prevent a government shutdown in the US.
Falling inflation numbers and potential Bitcoin spot ETF approvals are adding fuel to the ongoing rally in risky assets like crypto as we head into 2024, according to the analyst.
According to Thielen, the cryptocurrency market was at risk of a short-term sell-off, but this was averted when US President Joe Biden signed an interim budget bill.
If the government were to shut down, non-essential government work would halt, including the Securities and Exchange Commission's progress on potential Bitcoin spot ETF approvals. Thielen argued that this could lead to further profit taking and a potential 10% decline in BTC.
However, with the bill's approval, momentum for a potential BTC spot ETF approval has been maintained, keeping Matrixport's year-end price target of $45,000 alive, according to the analyst. This target was first set in February when BTC was trading at $22,500.
The latest inflation data in the USA, announced on November 14, showed that the CPI fell below expectations, falling from 3.7% to 3.2%. Matrixport estimates that this rate will decrease to 1.6% in 2024. Such a decline could lead to significant interest rate cuts (150-200 basis points) by the Fed, fueling an ongoing rally in risky assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, according to the analyst.
Thielen also reiterated his expectation that this “fifth Bitcoin bull market” will last until December 2024, with a price target of $125,000, approximately six months after Bitcoin's next expected halving event in April, when block rewards will be halved.
Matrixport predicts Ethereum's revenues will reach $171 million this month, the highest level since May, signaling a potential period of dominance over Bitcoin. According to the analyst, this increase is a positive sign not only for ETH but also for the broader altcoin market, where fees and revenues are increasing on various chains and BTC market dominance has reached its peak.
*This is not investment advice.