One of the reasons for Bitcoin's sharp decline to $ 53,500 is Mt. Gox started issuing refunds.
Mt. Gox will distribute Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to creditors as part of the repayments. In this context, while it is planned to distribute 73 million dollars worth of BCH to investors in the coming months, the value of BTC to be distributed is around 9 billion dollars.
According to Coindesk, while these refunds are expected to negatively affect the price of BTC and BCH, Singapore-based trading firm Presto Labs is offering its customers the ongoing Mt. Gox suggested they bet on the strength of Bitcoin and against Bitcoin Cash in a market-neutral trade to profit from their redemptions.
Presto market analysts led by Peter Chung argued in a note to clients that it would make sense to go Long for BTC and short for BCH, saying:
“Mt. Gox's Rehabilitation Trustees plan to distribute billions of dollars worth of BTC and BCH between July 1 and October 31, 2024,
This could lead to a shift in the supply/demand dynamics in BTC and BCH during this 4-month period, potentially creating a pair trading opportunity.
Our analysis shows that selling pressure for BCH will be four times greater than for BTC. So, according to these figures, possible selling pressure corresponds to 24% of the daily transaction value for BCH and 6% of the daily transaction value for BTC.
“We think long BTC perpetuals paired with short BCH perpetuals will be the most profitable trades.”
Bitcoin Investors Will Hold, BCH Investors Will Sell!
Presto analysts recently argued that the people who will receive Bitcoin as part of the refunds will most likely be rich people who are not inclined to sell and have a HODL mentality. However, the same is not true for BCH.
According to analysts, almost all investors who buy BCH will sell.
“We think investors who hold Bitcoin in its early stages are likely to be “diamond-handed rich Bitcoin investors” and therefore more likely to keep some of their redemptions rather than selling the asset outright.
However, BCH has a much weaker investor base and we think 100 percent of it could be sold in the near term.”
*This is not investment advice.
