Cryptocurrency analysis firm QCP Capital has shared its views on Bitcoin’s recent recovery, attributing the breakout from the $58,000-$62,000 range to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole.
According to the firm, this speech indicated a significant shift in momentum, acting as the catalyst Bitcoin needed to break above resistance levels.
QCP Capital noted that the expected September rate cuts have been confirmed, but details about the size of the cuts remain unclear. The firm noted that the August employment report will be crucial in determining the next move. A 25 basis point cut could signal a gradual easing and cause a rally, while a 50 basis point cut could signal the Fed will take more urgent action to prevent a potential economic downturn.
The recent rally was driven primarily by spot buying, with fixed funding rates suggesting limited leverage trading so far, analysts say. However, QCP Capital expects an increase in long leverage positions if the $62,000 support level holds, especially as the summer holiday season winds down.
On the options side, the firm saw bullish activity pick up as around 600 contracts were bought for Monday’s $62,500-$63,000 call just before Powell’s speech. The bullish trend is also extending further with significant long positions accumulating in December and March options at strike prices between $80,000 and $85,000.
Looking ahead, QCP Capital sees Bitcoin comfortably in the $61,000-$70,000 range as selling pressure eases and spot ETFs continue to attract inflows, posting gains in 10 of the last 12 days. The firm notes that while upcoming events like Nvidia’s earnings and the September interest rate decision are important, Bitcoin could remain range-bound through the fourth quarter.
*This is not investment advice.
