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Cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal has detected a local top in Bitcoin price, citing multiple on-chain indicators that signaled weakness prior to the recent drop.
In a new report titled “4 Metrics That Indicate Bitcoin’s Local Top,” Alphractal outlined key factors that suggest Bitcoin has reached a near-term top, with signals pointing to December 16, 2024, as a pivotal moment.
According to the analytics firm, the metrics that predicted the Bitcoin price drop were:
- 2Y SMA Multiplier – Based on Bitcoin’s two-year moving average, this metric has historically tracked price cycles. According to Alphractal, Bitcoin has been showing weaker growth over time, and a trendline resistance emerged in mid-December that signaled a local top.
- MVRV Z-Score – A measure of realized value relative to market cap, this indicator helps identify overbought and oversold conditions. Alphractal noted that Bitcoin is encountering resistance at a key trend line that lines up with past local highs.
- Reserve Risk Indicators – Metrics such as VOCDD, MVOCDD, and Reserve Risk evaluate long-term holder behavior. The MVOCDD Signal in particular acted as a classic local top warning, indicating that seasoned investors were beginning to reduce exposure.
- On-Chain CapFlow Sentiment Index – This metric combines realized capitalization and momentum indicators to track the strength of coin flows. A weakening trend has been detected, suggesting that experienced holders are offloading coins.
Despite these bearish signals, Alphractal explained that Bitcoin could recover in the next three months. However, for now, the market remains at a decisive moment with high volatility ahead.
*This is not investment advice.
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