Presto Labs Research Manager Peter Chung, Mt. He argued that the fear that the selling pressure resulting from the bankruptcy of Gox would decrease the price of Bitcoin (BTC) was unfounded.
Mt. Gox Doomsday Scenario Targets Bitcoin Cash, Not Bitcoin
Instead, the main concern is with Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which could face significant selling pressure.
Presto Labs' research note, Mt. He emphasizes that the upcoming distribution from Gox will include roughly $9.5 billion BTC and 143,000 BCH worth approximately $73 million.
CoinGecko data shows that Bitcoin Cash's daily transaction volume is $308.8 million, and redemptions account for approximately 24% of this volume.
“Our analysis shows that selling pressure for BCH will be four times greater than for BTC: 24% of the daily trading value for BCH versus 6% of the daily trading value for BTC,” wrote Presto Labs Research Manager Peter Chung.
He emphasized that BCH's daily trading volume is only 1/50 of that of BTC.
Chung explained that BTC is expected to experience limited selling pressure because many creditors who want to exit have already sold their receivables in the bankruptcy markets. This contrasts with the rapid disposal of investors' claims in the early days of FTX's bankruptcy.
“Weak-handed creditors have had multiple exit opportunities over the past decade thanks to aggressive bidding from demand funds, so we can safely assume that the current creditor group consists of diamond-handed BTC bulls,” Chung said in a statement.
In contrast, Mt. Bitcoin Cash, which was forked three years after Gox's bankruptcy, is likely to be viewed as an “airdrop” by creditors and sold immediately. Chung continued: “Creditors are unaware of BCH's motive.”
Chung suggests that the most efficient market-neutral strategy to alleviate this selling pressure is to pair long BTC perpetuals with short BCH perpetuals, despite the funding rate risk.
“Those looking to lock in the funding rate can explore other approaches such as shorting futures or borrowing BCH in the spot market,” he added.
*This is not investment advice.
