As the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin hovers around the $80,000 mark during the critical Fed week, a wide range of predictions have emerged for BTC.
During this process, two analysts independently conducted Monte Carlo simulations for Bitcoin. One of them, on-chain data analyst Willy Woo, revealed that a Monte Carlo simulation examining 10,000 different Bitcoin price scenarios showed that BTC could reach $1.03 million in February 2033. However, the analyst does not consider this result a definitive price prediction.
Which Levels Stand Out for Bitcoin’s 2028 Peak?
In a post titled “X”, Willy Woo stated that the simulation modeled 10,000 possible price paths and found scenarios between 28% and 50% to be plausible. According to this simulation, the potential peak of Bitcoin’s long-term price movement in 2028 could be between $241,000 and $413,000. In the scenario Woo considers plausible, BTC could reach $1.03 million in February 2033.
The analyst particularly emphasized that the model is not a prediction, but rather a study that reveals possible outcomes, using past price movements to present scenarios that could occur under different market conditions.
Woo also added that the Monte Carlo simulation modeled both upward and downward scenarios by referencing price data from the 2018 and 2022 lows.
Woo’s Monte Carlo simulation predicts that BTC will rise to $413,000 by December 2028, then fall by 43% to $234,000 by April 2030.
The difference between the extreme scenarios in the simulation is quite significant. In the most optimistic 90% scenario, Bitcoin is calculated to reach $1.44 million in March 2029, while in the most pessimistic 10% scenario, it seems possible for it to fall to $51,900 in April 2030.
In a more cautious scenario, Bitcoin is projected to rise to $241,000 in December 2028 before falling back to $126,000 in April 2030.
Will Bitcoin Not Fall Below $80,000?
A Bitcoin data expert known as “Smithston With” on X also used Monte Carlo simulation for BTC. In his post, the analyst stated that he ran the simulation 5,000 times between 2027 and 2034, and in none of the simulations did the Bitcoin price fall below approximately $80,000.
According to the median scenario of the simulation conducted by the analyst, Bitcoin’s year-end price is expected to reach $170,000 in 2027, $266,000 in 2028, and $537,000 in 2030.
The simulation’s results for 2034 are also noteworthy. According to the scenario representing the lowest 5%, Bitcoin is projected to reach $464,000 by the end of 2034. In more optimistic scenarios, Bitcoin is calculated to rise to $5.62 million by the end of 2034.
However, it should be noted that these figures are not exact price predictions, but rather possible scenarios generated by the simulation model.
*This is not investment advice.
