Benjamin Cowen, a closely followed analyst in the cryptocurrency market, assessed the latest developments in the Bitcoin (BTC) price. Cowen suggested that bullish expectations for Bitcoin have weakened and that bears are beginning to regain control of the market.
Noting that Bitcoin gave back most of its gains after rising to the $87,000 level, the analyst emphasized that the $83,000 level is a critical threshold.
According to Cowen, two consecutive weekly closes for Bitcoin below $83,000 could be a strong technical signal that the recent rally was a bull trap.
The analyst noted that the previous week’s close was around $82.042, and that a second weekly close below this level would strengthen the bearish scenario.
Benjamin Cowen Points to $72,000 for Bitcoin
Cowen noted that Bitcoin had fallen back below its 50-day moving average, adding that similar technical developments were occurring in other risky assets.
Citing NASDAQ, Dow Jones, Ethereum (ETH), and various altcoin indices as examples, the analyst stated that these assets have retreated towards bull market support bands after losing their 50-day moving averages.
Cowen stated that Bitcoin could also make a similar move, arguing that the bull market support band between $72,000 and $76,000 could be the next major target.
The renowned analyst also considered Bitcoin’s fall back below its May peak, following its September surge, a negative development.
According to Cowen, the fact that the price has fallen back below the previous peak after it was surpassed suggests that a failed breakout may have occurred in the market.
The $60,000 Bitcoin Scenario is Also on the Table
Cowen also touched upon longer-term risks, saying that Bitcoin falling to the $60,000 level and then rising again could create a complex picture for investors.
The analyst noted that in such a scenario, investors who bought during previous rallies could create selling pressure during potential rebounds.
Cowen also pointed to the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022, reminding readers that Bitcoin can experience sharp declines after US midterm elections.
The analyst emphasized that macroeconomic developments are also important, arguing that the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate policy, inflation data, and potential increases in US bond yields could put additional pressure on Bitcoin.
Cowen’s possible scenarios include oil prices rising to $120 and the Fed raising interest rates in December. However, the analyst specifically emphasized that these are not definitive predictions but probabilities that may change depending on developments.
Cowen stated that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, but cautioned against short-term bias.
The analyst stated that he would reconsider the current bearish scenario if Bitcoin were to settle back above $83,000 on a weekly close.
*This is not investment advice.
