NYDIG, an investment firm known for its analysis of the cryptocurrency market, shared a noteworthy assessment stating that Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price movements show similarities to past bear markets.
According to the company, the correction period between 2025-2026 is increasingly similar to the classic four-year cycle seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. If this historical pattern repeats, Bitcoin is predicted to bottom out this year in the $38,000 to $39,000 range.
According to NYDIG’s analysis, Bitcoin has lost approximately 50 percent of its value since reaching its all-time high of around $126,000 in October 2025. This decline shares similarities with sharp corrections seen in previous market cycles. The firm notes that both the magnitude and duration of the decline largely coincide with data from past bear markets.
The report noted that Bitcoin is projected to underperform not only against cryptocurrencies but also against traditional financial instruments throughout 2026. Safe-haven assets such as US Treasury bonds, silver, and the Swiss franc have outperformed Bitcoin since the beginning of the year. This is attributed to increasing uncertainty in global markets and a decrease in investor risk appetite.
However, NYDIG also emphasizes that historical cycles do not definitively reflect the future. Analysts point out that while past market movements offer important references, new dynamics such as increasing interest from institutional investors, spot Bitcoin ETFs, macroeconomic developments, and regulatory changes could differentiate the current cycle from previous periods.
*This is not investment advice.
