The conflict in the Middle East and statements from the US and Iran continue to affect Bitcoin (BTC) and oil prices.
While this situation has fueled speculation about a correlation between Bitcoin and oil prices, Binance Research states that there is no significant correlation between BTC and oil prices.
According to a recent report by Binance Research, the price of Bitcoin moves independently of oil prices and maintains its own upward trend even during times of crisis.
Binance Research stated that their study analyzed 10 years of data. Analysts indicated that the data confirmed there is no long-term correlation between Bitcoin and oil prices.
The report found that the two assets did not influence each other except during specific periods of increased liquidity.
“…both the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and the 2026 Hormuz crisis showed the same two-stage pattern. After the market shock, volatility increased for 1-3 days, then Bitcoin traded according to its fundamental dynamics.”
Binance Research highlighted that Bitcoin has also risen in the face of the current increase in oil prices stemming from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, outperforming both stocks and gold. This rise is being driven by institutional demand, including inflows into spot ETFs and institutional purchases.
The report also stated that oil prices are a factor that increases volatility rather than determining the direction of the Bitcoin price.
“Oil shocks increase Bitcoin’s short-term volatility but don’t determine its price direction.”
In the current structure, where institutional flows form the backbone of the market, geopolitical events such as sudden increases in oil prices are seen as entry opportunities rather than risk factors for BTC.
*This is not investment advice.
