Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Global Director of Macro, stated that he takes a cautious approach to the frequently cited thesis that “the four-year cycle has ended” in the Bitcoin (BTC) market.
According to Timmer, Bitcoin’s current price movements show more similarities to the S-curve observed in the early days of the internet than to the classic power law curve.
Timmer noted that many Bitcoin advocates argue the halving cycle has lost its impact and that a new, structural bullish wave has begun, but he stated that he does not entirely agree with this view. “I agree with the idea that the halving cycle’s impact has weakened; however, I am skeptical of the claim that this automatically means the bear market is over,” he said.
According to a Fidelity executive, the current trend bottom for Bitcoin is at $65,000. This level also corresponds to Bitcoin’s previous all-time high (ATH). However, the longer-term power law trend line theoretically points to a bottom around $45,000.
Timmer stated that if Bitcoin enters a period of sideways consolidation over the next year, the power law trendline could shift upwards, approaching the $65,000 level, which could become a “lifeline” for the market. However, he emphasized that this scenario is not certain, and it remains uncertain whether it will happen, or even within the next year.
*This is not investment advice.
