Matrixport stated that as we enter 2026, the Bitcoin market is significantly diverging from the early rally periods of previous cycles, with new capital inflows remaining limited. In its assessment shared on social media, the company painted a cautious picture of the current market structure.
Matrixport’s analysis highlighted that recent technical price movements could occasionally justify more aggressive, short-term tactical trades, but broader structural indicators do not support a sustained bull market.
According to the company, an analysis of past market cycles shows that periods when the Bitcoin price falls below its one-year moving average, trading volumes weaken, and fund inflows decrease generally indicate more challenging market conditions.
On-chain data also supports this view. Matrixport noted that large, long-standing investors continue to reduce their holdings in a controlled manner, with these sales being balanced by demand from smaller investors. This situation, it was stated, is leading to the formation of a prolonged and horizontal peak, rather than a sudden panic sell-off or a classic “bubble peak”.
On the other hand, the limited increase in realized market cap inflows and the number of newly opened addresses indicates that fresh money is injecting into the market weakly. According to Matrixport, this data shows that new investor participation is still limited and the Bitcoin market has not yet gained the momentum necessary for a broad-based uptrend.
The company cautioned that, under current conditions, investors might be more prudent to consider long-term structural signals rather than short-term price movements.
*This is not investment advice.
