According to the latest briefing shared by GreeksLive, expectations for a strong bullish breakout in Bitcoin (BTC) by the end of the year are quite low within the English-speaking investor community.
Adam, a macro researcher at the institution, argued in his assessment that market sentiment was sharply divided and the short-term outlook remained cautious.
According to Adam’s analysis, a strong bearish segment within the community argues that BTC has undergone a structural change since the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options went live on November 19, 2024. This view suggests that Bitcoin is failing to generate upward momentum during US trading hours and is generally performing weakly. The analysis highlights the potential for increased volatility around January 6th, while noting that most investors are skeptical about a “major breakout” by the end of the year. On the daily timeframe, the technical structure remains bearish.
Another key point raised in the briefing was the criticism that Bitcoin’s increasing financialization is transforming the nature of the cryptocurrency market. Adam stated that since the introduction of IBIT options, BTC has become one of the weakest performing assets globally, both in terms of absolute return and risk-adjusted return. He noted that during this period, there was no increase of over 15% in a single month, only around 10% in two months; and that predominantly downward movements were observed during US trading hours.
According to the analysis, a pattern is increasingly emerging in the markets: sharp declines in the first two hours after US markets open, followed by prolonged stagnation; and generally weak pricing during the Asian session. The tendency of US investors to quickly sell off gains reduces the attractiveness of cryptocurrency markets compared to traditional financial markets, which offer similar volatility but with FDIC protection and circuit breaker mechanisms.
GreeksLive’s assessment states that passive fund flows are primarily supporting traditional markets, while passive selling pressure and peak liquidations are prominent on the BTC side. The shift in custody preferences from direct BTC to packaged products like IBIT is also said to raise long-term budgetary concerns regarding network security and proof-of-work (PoW) systems.
*This is not investment advice.
