Cryptocurrency analyst Timothy Peterson predicted a potential “Santa rally” for Bitcoin in a Twitter post, citing three key indicators.
Peterson cited historical trends, market seasonality, and the performance of the US dollar as factors that point to a strong Bitcoin rally during the holiday season.
- Dollar’s Weakening Momentum: The analyst noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a recent high and there is an 85% chance it will reverse soon. Historically, a declining dollar has an inverse relationship with Bitcoin, as declining global demand for the USD often pushes investors toward alternatives like cryptocurrencies. “A weaker dollar is often associated with stronger Bitcoin performance,” Peterson said.
- Bitcoin Seasonal Resistance: The analyst said that Bitcoin has historically performed positively in the last week of December. Data shows that Bitcoin tends to perform well from December 25 to January 2, with exceptions being both rare and mild. Peterson also noted that since 2015, Bitcoin has gained in November 100% of the time, and has also gained in December. This trend could see Bitcoin perform an average of 10% in December, pushing its price to $106,000 by the end of the year.
- Historical Cycle Examples: Peterson drew parallels with the 2016 and 2020 bull market cycles, stating that Bitcoin’s current price trajectory closely mirrors those periods. He suggested that Bitcoin is poised for a significant upward move consistent with the “January effect,” where markets typically see renewed buying interest following year-end tax losses.
*This is not investment advice.
