The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) has published an article raising concerns that a recent spike in former President Donald Trump’s rates on cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket may have been artificially inflated.
According to the report, Trump’s chances of winning the November election have risen sharply over the past two weeks. As of Thursday, Polymarket users were predicting Trump’s chances at 62%, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 38%. That’s a significant shift from early October, when the two candidates were in a close race.
The WSJ suggests that the spike could be the result of manipulation by four Polymarket accounts that collectively placed around $30 million worth of cryptocurrency bets on Trump’s victory. Miguel Morel, CEO of blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, said after analyzing the data, he believes the four accounts are likely controlled by the same entity.
Some observers argue that the big predictions could be the work of a high-stakes player betting on Trump's luck and looking for a big payout, while others suspect it could be part of a coordinated influence campaign designed to give Trump momentum on social media.
Polymarket is reportedly investigating activities in the presidential election marketplace and has hired outside experts to assist with the investigation, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Adam Cochran, managing partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, said the $30 million was enough to manipulate the odds on Polymarket and was not a significant expense for a wealthy individual or group looking to influence an election. Cochran called the move one of the most effective political ads money can buy.
Polymarket currently puts Trump's win probability at 60%, maintaining a significant lead over Harris.
*This is not investment advice.
